We've Never Seen the Boston Market Do This

We've never seen the Boston housing market split like this. Some homes are getting ten offers the first weekend, and others, in the same neighborhood, are sitting for 45 days with no showings. It's the most confusing market I've seen in nearly a decade.

And it's catching a lot of people off guard. Sellers think the frenzy is back, buyers think they can wait for a deal, and the truth is it's both and neither. The rules that used to make sense? They don't apply right now. And if you don't understand why some properties are flying while others are stalling, you will make a very expensive mistake this fall.

My name is Kimberlee Meserve and I've been helping people buy and sell in the Greater Boston area for the last decade. I've been through hot markets, slow markets, and everything in between, but I've never seen one this split. So today, we're unpacking exactly what's driving this divide, where the real demand is showing up, and what it means if you're buying or selling in Greater Boston right now.

Because once you see what's really going on beneath the headlines, you'll understand why this isn't a hot or cold market. It's a selective one. Let's dive in.

What's Actually Happening Right Now

So what do I mean when I say the market is "split"?

I mean that inventory is up in some areas, but absorption rates tell a completely different story. Days on market are extending for certain property types, while others are still moving in under a week. We're seeing price reductions on homes that would've had bidding wars two years ago, and yet other listings are still going over asking with multiple offers.

The Data Shows Part of the Picture

The data shows us part of the picture: inventory levels are higher than they were last year, average days on market is climbing, and the percentage of homes selling over asking has dropped. But the data alone doesn't tell you why this is happening or what it means for your specific situation.

Because here's what's really going on: demand hasn't disappeared. It's just become hyper-focused. Buyers aren't writing offers on everything anymore. They're being incredibly selective about where they spend their money and what they're willing to compromise on.

The same street can have one home sell in a weekend and another sit for weeks. The difference isn't luck. It's not timing. It's alignment with what buyers actually want right now, and a lot of sellers are discovering that what worked in 2021 or even 2023 doesn't work anymore.

The 3 Core Drivers of the Split Market

So why is this happening? There are three major forces driving this split, and if you understand these, you'll understand the entire market right now.

Driver #1: The Affordability Ceiling

Buyers have hit their limit. And I don't just mean financially, I mean emotionally and practically. They're done overpaying for average properties. They're done waiving inspections on homes that need work. They're done stretching their budget for a house that checks half their boxes.

But (and this is critical) they will still compete for the right property. If a home is updated, well-priced, and in a desirable location, buyers will show up. They'll move fast. They'll stretch their budget. Because they're not looking for a house anymore, they're looking for the house.

There's no more paying a premium for convenience. People want quality. They want value. And if your listing doesn't deliver that, it doesn't matter how good the market was last year, it's going to sit.

Driver #2: Rate Psychology

Let's talk about interest rates for a second, because this is shaping behavior more than people realize.

Buyers are in a "wait-and-see" mode. A lot of them are hoping rates will drop to 5.5%, maybe lower. They're watching the headlines. They're listening to predictions. And they're thinking, "If I wait a few months, maybe I'll get a better deal."

On the seller side, it's the opposite problem. Sellers are anchored to 2022 comps. They remember when their neighbor's house sold in three days for $50K over asking, and they think that's still the baseline. So they price accordingly and then wonder why no one's calling.

The reality? Rates have been hovering around 6.5% to 7% for months now. They're not spiking, but they're also not dropping dramatically anytime soon. And while everyone's waiting, demand is paused (not gone). It's sitting on the sidelines, ready to move when the right opportunity shows up.

Driver #3: Lifestyle Segmentation

This one's big, and it's something I'm seeing play out in real time across Greater Boston.

People aren't just buying houses anymore, they're buying lifestyles. Walkability matters. School districts matter. Commute times matter. The vibe of the town matters. And buyers are willing to pay a premium for the lifestyle they want and walk away entirely if it's not there.

This is creating micro-clusters of demand. You've got some towns that are absolutely on fire because they check all the boxes. And then you've got neighboring towns (sometimes just a few miles away) where inventory is stacking up because buyers just don't see the same value.

The gap between a town like Lexington and a town like Wilmington has never been wider, even though they're neighbors. It's not that one is "better," it's that buyer priorities have shifted, and the market is reflecting that in a really dramatic way.

What This Means for Sellers

If you're thinking about selling, here's what you need to know: the rules of 2021 no longer apply.

I'm seeing three types of sellers right now, and the results they're getting are wildly different.

The Optimists

These sellers are pricing their homes based on what they want to get, not what the market is showing them. They're looking at peak comps from 2022, maybe adding a little because their house is "special," and they're expecting multiple offers.

What's actually happening? They're sitting on the market for 45, 60, sometimes 90 days. They're doing price reductions. And by the time they finally get realistic, buyer interest has already moved on.

The Realists

These sellers are pricing for demand. They're looking at recent sales, understanding what buyers are actually responding to, and they're pricing accordingly. These sellers are getting showings immediately. They're getting offers within the first week or two. And they're closing without drama.

The Strategists

Then you've got the strategists, and these are the sellers who are winning right now. They're not just pricing well, they're preparing the home. They're staging it. They're making sure the listing photos are incredible. They're thinking about timing and positioning. And they're creating urgency because the property itself is undeniable.

The Key Takeaway for Sellers

You're not competing against other homes anymore, you're competing against buyer attention. And in a market where buyers are being selective, you have to give them a reason to choose you.

If your home isn't updated, if it's overpriced, if the photos are mediocre, it doesn't matter how good your neighborhood is. Buyers will scroll past it.

What This Means for Buyers

Now, if you're a buyer, you might be thinking: "Great, inventory is up, homes are sitting longer. This is my chance to lowball everything and get a deal."

Not quite.

You can't use the same playbook as 2023. The market has shifted, and so has the strategy.

Right now, there are two types of opportunities, and you need to know which one you're going after.

Strategic Buys

These are the homes that have been sitting. Maybe they're overpriced. Maybe they need cosmetic work. Maybe the seller is motivated but hasn't adjusted yet. These are the properties where you have negotiation power, but you also need to know what you're looking at. You need to understand value, you need to move with confidence, and you need to know when to walk away.

Competitive Buys

Then you've got competitive buys: the updated, turnkey, move-in-ready homes in the right locations. These are still getting multiple offers. They're still going fast. And if you're not pre-approved, if you're not ready to move quickly, if you don't have a strong offer strategy, you're going to lose.

What Smart Buyers Are Doing

Here's what I'm telling my buyers: The best buyers right now know how to spot value before the crowd does. They're not waiting for the perfect deal to fall into their lap. They're watching the market closely, they understand the micro-trends in specific towns, and when the right opportunity shows up, they move.

That means:

• Being pre-approved, not just pre-qualified
• Having a lender who can close fast
• Understanding what matters to you and what doesn't, so you're not chasing every listing that pops up

Because the homes that are worth buying? They're not sitting around waiting for you to figure it out.

Where This Market Is Headed Next

So where is all of this going?

Here's my forecast based on what I'm seeing and the trends that are taking shape right now.

Low inventory is going to continue through the winter. We're not going to see a flood of new listings hitting the market anytime soon, because most homeowners are still locked into low rates and they're not motivated to move unless they have to.

If rates drop (even slightly), we could see competition re-ignite in the spring. There's a lot of pent-up demand sitting on the sidelines right now, and if buyers feel like they're getting a better deal on financing, they're going to jump back in. That means if you're planning to buy in 2025, waiting for rates to drop might actually make things more competitive, not less.

And then there are bigger shifts happening: policy changes, development patterns, zoning reforms that are going to reshape certain areas over the next few years.

Here's the bottom line: The people who understand this shift early are the ones who are going to win in 2025. Whether you're buying or selling, this is not a market where you can just wing it and hope for the best. You need to know what's actually moving, where demand is showing up, and how to position yourself accordingly.

The Bottom Line

Let's recap: This isn't a hot market. It's not a cold market. It's a selective market. And if you try to approach it the way you would have in 2021 or even 2023, you're going to be disappointed.

The homes that are winning right now are the ones that align with what buyers actually want: updated, fairly priced, in the right location. Everything else is sitting. And the buyers who are winning are the ones who understand value, move decisively, and know how to separate signal from noise.

Navigate This Market Successfully

If you're buying, selling, or relocating to the Greater Boston area, make sure you're playing the right game for this market. Download my free Boston Relocation Guide below. It's going to give you a clear breakdown of each area, what's actually moving, and where the opportunities are.

And when you're ready to take the next step, whether that's a buyer consultation or getting your home prepped to sell, reach out. I'd love to help you navigate this.

Want to understand where Boston real estate is heading long-term? Check out my analysis of how development patterns and policy changes are reshaping the Greater Boston market over the next few years.

Seeing this split in your neighborhood? Share what you're experiencing in the comments below!